By Nco Dube | 06 May 2025

Africa is a continent marked by extraordinary diversity, encompassing a vast array of cultures, languages, and histories. This richness, however, is juxtaposed with a complex political landscape where narratives of progress coexist with persistent struggles. As we navigate through 2025, it is essential to critically assess the state of governance, peace, and stability across Africa. While the continent has made notable advances in democratic practices and regional cooperation, significant challenges continue to threaten its stability and development trajectory.

Democratic Progress and Political Realities

In recent years, Africa has exhibited a varied political panorama. Nations such as South Africa, Botswana, and Ghana have upheld relatively peaceful electoral processes and smooth transitions of power, reinforcing the continent’s democratic credentials. The emergence of coalition governments and the rise of political pluralism in several countries signal a maturing political culture. Furthermore, the African Union (AU) alongside regional economic communities have been instrumental in promoting democratic norms and mediating political disputes, showcasing a growing commitment to governance reforms.

Despite these positive developments, democracy in Africa remains fragile and uneven. Electoral processes in many countries are often tainted by allegations of fraud, voter intimidation, and constraints on media freedom. A troubling trend is the extension of incumbents’ rule through the circumvention of constitutional term limits, which undermines institutional checks and balances and erodes public trust. Such democratic backsliding fuels widespread disillusionment, particularly among the continent’s youth, who increasingly demand transparency, accountability, and genuine participation in governance.

The year 2024 was widely recognized as a “year of elections” across Africa, with more electoral contests anticipated in 2025, especially in West and Central Africa. These elections are critical tests for democratic consolidation and political stability. However, the growing involvement of external geopolitical actors, including Russia, the US, China and others, complicates the political dynamics, sometimes intensifying tensions and influencing electoral outcomes.

Africa’s political calendar in 2025 is especially significant, with over ten countries scheduled for elections, including key presidential races in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Gabon, and Malawi. 

These elections not only determine national leadership but also reflect broader trends, such as the rise of opposition parties and the waning dominance of former liberation movements. The continent also faces transitions involving some of its longest-serving leaders, such as Paul Biya of Cameroon and Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea, highlighting the tension between entrenched power and emerging demands for change.

Peace and Security: A Continent at Crossroads

Peace and security remain among Africa’s most pressing and complex challenges. Several regions continue to experience violent conflicts that disrupt millions of lives and impede development. The Sahel region, for instance, is beset by persistent jihadist violence, while the Horn of Africa grapples with insurgencies and ethnic tensions. The African Union, in collaboration with international partners such as Turkey and the United States, has intensified peacekeeping efforts, notably in Somalia, to counter groups like al Shabaab.

Ethnic and secessionist conflicts in countries including Cameroon, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Mali further complicate the security environment. Proxy wars and regional rivalries, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Great Lakes region, obstruct peace initiatives. Fragile peace agreements often collapse, leading to renewed cycles of violence and displacement. Civilian dissatisfaction with governance and inadequate service delivery frequently sparks unrest, which governments sometimes respond to with repressive measures, exacerbating grievances and instability.

The proliferation of armed militias and decentralised power struggles creates volatile security environments that challenge the authority of traditional state institutions. Yet, it is important to recognise that Africa is not the most violent continent globally. Many African countries enjoy relative peace and stability, and the continent as a whole has made significant strides in conflict resolution and peacebuilding.

Peacebuilding and Regional Cooperation

In response to these security challenges, Africa has demonstrated remarkable resilience and a strong commitment to peacebuilding. The African Union remains a central actor in mediation efforts and peacekeeping operations, with new leadership elections within the AU and other continental bodies in 2025 aiming to enhance transparency and promote African-led solutions.

International partners have also contributed constructively, as evidenced by peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda. These agreements, which include commitments to respect sovereignty and cease support for armed groups, represent crucial steps toward lasting peace. 

Moreover, regional economic integration and infrastructure development are increasingly viewed as integral components of peace frameworks, recognising that economic interdependence can foster stability.

The AU’s Agenda 2063 underscores the importance of regional cooperation, economic resilience, and reducing undue foreign influence. Grassroots organisations and civil society play an increasingly vital role in peacebuilding by advocating for inclusive dialogue and addressing the root causes of conflict. This bottom-up approach complements diplomatic efforts and peacekeeping missions, offering hope for sustainable peace.

Emerging Regional Dynamics and International Influence

The geopolitical landscape of Africa is undergoing significant shifts. The African Union’s leadership election in early 2025 is a critical moment for continental governance and cooperation, with candidates emphasizing economic resilience, regional diplomacy, and reducing foreign influence. Meanwhile, regional blocs such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) face challenges, including the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, who have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This new alliance signals a reconfiguration of regional power balances and a desire for greater self-determination among Sahelian states.

The relative decline of European influence, exemplified by the waning impact of the EU’s Global Gateway Initiative, contrasts with Africa’s efforts to strengthen its global position. The continent’s growing interest in leveraging technology for economic growth is highlighted by events such as the Global AI Summit in Rwanda, reflecting a forward-looking approach to development.

At the same time, the United States is expected to intensify its presence along Africa’s Atlantic coast, pursuing a more assertive policy to establish itself as a strategic partner in the region. Concurrently, a “New Berlin Pact” among international powers may emerge, aiming to redefine influence on the continent in a manner respectful of local sovereignty and excluding military force, signalling a shift toward more diplomatic engagement.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities

Looking forward, Africa faces a delicate balancing act. The recent slowdown in military coups is an encouraging sign, yet political instability remains a persistent risk. The upcoming elections in key countries such as Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, and Gabon will be pivotal for democratic consolidation and governance reforms.

Economic growth prospects across the continent are positive, buoyed by youthful populations and expanding markets. 

However, governance challenges and public dissatisfaction persist, fuelled by issues such as corruption, inequality, and inadequate service delivery. Youth activism, empowered by digital technologies and social media, is reshaping political participation and demanding greater accountability from leaders.

External influences will continue to shape regional dynamics, necessitating vigilant and strategic diplomacy. Strengthening democratic institutions, the rule of law, and inclusive governance are essential for long-term stability. African governments must also address environmental and social challenges, including climate change, which exacerbates resource scarcity and can trigger conflicts.

Africa’s future depends on its ability to harness its immense diversity and resilience, building on progress while confronting persistent challenges head-on. The continent’s journey toward peace, democracy, and sustainable development is ongoing, with the stakes higher than ever.

Conclusion

Africa stands at a crossroads in 2025, a continent of immense potential and complex challenges. While progress in democratic governance, peacebuilding, and regional cooperation is evident, persistent issues such as electoral fragility, violent conflicts, and external geopolitical pressures threaten stability. The continent’s political landscape is dynamic, marked by significant elections, leadership transitions, and evolving regional alliances.

The path forward requires a pragmatic and strategic approach that prioritises African-led solutions, strengthens institutions, and fosters inclusive economic and political participation. By embracing its diversity and leveraging its youthful energy, Africa can navigate its challenges and realize its aspirations for peace, stability, and prosperity.

In the words of many African leaders and analysts, Africa’s future is not merely about elections but about the choices made today for a better tomorrow. The continent’s resilience and determination offer hope that, despite persistent challenges, progress will continue to unfold, shaping a more peaceful and democratic Africa for generations to come.

(Dube is a Political Economist, Businessman, and Social Commentator on UkhoziFM and various newspapers. Read more of his articles here: www. ncodube.blog)