By Nco Dube | 08 March 2025

The 2024 South African general elections marked a historic turning point in the country’s political landscape. For the first time since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) failed to secure a parliamentary majority, winning only 40% of the vote. This result forced the once-dominant liberation movement into a Government of National Unity (GNU) with its political rivals, most notably the Democratic Alliance (DA), which secured 21% of the vote. 

While the DA has emerged as a key beneficiary of the ANC’s decline, the dynamics of the GNU have exposed deep fissures within both parties, as well as the challenges of coalition governance in a highly polarised political environment. The DA’s recent foray into foreign affairs, particularly its engagement with the Trump administration in the United States, has further complicated matters, raising questions about whether the party has overplayed its hand in its quest for influence.

The GNU: A Marriage of Convenience

The formation of the GNU was initially hailed as a pragmatic solution to the political impasse created by the ANC’s electoral decline. The DA, with its 21% share of the vote, would have been a natural choice for a coalition partner, given its status as the official opposition and its relatively moderate stance compared to more radical parties like the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or the Umkhonto Wesizwe Party (MKP). 

However, the GNU was always going to be a marriage of convenience rather than a union of shared ideals. The ANC and DA are ideologically opposed on key issues, from economic policy to land reform and social transformation. This ideological divide has made governance fraught with tension, as both parties jostle for influence and control.

The ANC, despite its reduced electoral mandate, has sought to assert its dominance within the GNU. This was evident in the party’s decision to sign into law three contentious pieces of legislation, the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill, the Basic Education Laws Amendment (BELA) Act, and the Expropriation Bill, all of which the DA vehemently opposed. 

The ANC’s move was widely seen as a symbolic assertion of its independence and a reminder to its coalition partners that it remains the senior partner in government. However, the reality is that these bills had already been passed by the Sixth Parliament before the elections and were merely awaiting the President’s assent when the GNU was formed. This nuance has been lost in the public discourse, with the ANC leveraging the narrative that it is still calling the shots.

The DA’s Influence: Media, Big Business, and Western Alliances

While the ANC has sought to project an image of strength, the DA has quietly consolidated its influence within the GNU. The party’s influence is not rooted in numbers. It remains the junior partner in the coalition, but in its savvy media relations, close ties to big business, and seemingly unfettered access to powerful Western governments. The DA has long positioned itself as the party of good governance, economic liberalism, and pro-Western values, which has endeared it to both domestic and international elites.

The DA’s media strategy has been particularly effective. The party has consistently outmanoeuvred the ANC in the court of public opinion, using its platform to highlight government failures and position itself as the voice of reason within the GNU. This has allowed the DA to shape public perceptions of its role in government, even as it struggles to implement its agenda in the face of ANC resistance.

The DA’s close cooperation with big business has also bolstered its influence. South Africa’s corporate sector, long wary of the ANC’s left-leaning policies, has thrown its weight behind the DA, providing the party with the financial and logistical support needed to maintain its political momentum. This is evidenced in the IEC’s quarterly reports of political party funding with shows the DA well ahead of everyone else in donations, most of them coming from big business or high-profile business people. This alliance has been mutually beneficial, with the DA advocating for policies that favour business interests, such as deregulation and tax cuts, while big business has used its resources to amplify the DA’s message.

Perhaps most controversially, the DA has leveraged its connections with Western governments to bolster its standing both domestically and internationally. The party’s recent decision to send a delegation to the United States to engage with the Trump administration is a case in point. The delegation’s mission was to address the issues that led to the suspension of US aid to South Africa and to extend a hand to Afrikaner farmers, whom Trump falsely claims are being persecuted. While the DA has framed this move as a necessary intervention to protect South Africa’s interests, it has been widely criticised as an overreach that undermines the country’s foreign policy and plays into the hands of a US administration that many South Africans view as racist and fascist.

The ANC’s Internal Tussles: Pro-GNU vs Anti-GNU Factions

The GNU has not only exposed the tensions between the ANC and DA but has also deepened the divisions within the ANC itself. The party is increasingly split between those who support the GNU and those who oppose it. The pro-GNU faction, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, views the coalition as a necessary compromise to stabilise the country and avoid a protracted political crisis. This faction argues that the GNU provides an opportunity for the ANC to rebuild its credibility and implement much-needed reforms, albeit in a diluted form.

On the other hand, the anti-GNU faction, which includes many of the party’s more radical elements, sees the coalition as a betrayal of the ANC’s revolutionary ideals. This faction views the DA as a Trojan horse for neoliberal policies and Western imperialism and believes that the GNU undermines the ANC’s ability to pursue its transformative agenda. The anti-GNU faction has been particularly vocal in its criticism of the DA’s engagement with the Trump administration, arguing that it undermines South Africa’s sovereignty and aligns the country with a regime that is hostile to its interests.

These internal divisions have weakened the ANC’s cohesion and made it increasingly difficult for the party to present a united front. The anti-GNU faction will use the DA’s foreign policy interventions as a rallying cry, accuse the pro-GNU faction of being complicit in the erosion of the ANC’s values. This infighting will not only hamper the ANC’s ability to govern effectively but will also create an opening for the DA to further consolidate its influence.

The DA’s Foreign Policy Meddling: A Step Too Far?

The DA’s decision to engage with the Trump administration has sparked a fierce debate about the party’s role in government and the limits of its influence. While the DA has defended its actions as a necessary intervention to protect South Africa’s interests, many view it as an overreach that undermines the country’s foreign policy and plays into the hands of a US administration that is widely contemptuous of South Africa and is intent on spreading and acting on deliberate misinformation about this country.

The DA’s engagement with the Trump administration is particularly controversial given the latter’s history of racist and xenophobic rhetoric. Trump’s claim that white South African farmers are being persecuted has been widely debunked, and his decision to suspend aid to South Africa has been seen as an attempt to bully the country into aligning with his agenda. By engaging with the Trump administration, the DA risks alienating its domestic support base and reinforcing the perception that it is out of touch with the realities of ordinary South Africans.

Moreover, the DA’s foreign policy meddling has given the ANC an opportunity to reclaim the moral high ground. The ANC has long positioned itself as a champion of the Global South and a vocal critic of Western imperialism. By contrast, the DA’s pro-Western stance has often been seen as a liability in a country where anti-Western sentiment runs deep. The DA’s engagement with the Trump administration has only reinforced this perception, allowing the ANC to paint the DA as a party that prioritises the interests of Western powers over those of South Africa.

The DA’s Capitalisation on ANC Inaction: A Window of Opportunity

One of the most striking dynamics in the GNU has been the DA’s ability to capitalise on the ANC’s apparent lethargy and lack of decisive action in key areas, particularly in responding to international crises. While President Cyril Ramaphosa initially responded firmly to the misinformation and inflammatory rhetoric from figures like Donald Trump and Elon Musk, his administration has failed to follow through with concrete actions. Weeks after Ramaphosa’s strong statements condemning Trump’s claims about the persecution of white farmers and Musk’s disparaging remarks about South Africa, there has been little to no visible progress in addressing these issues. This inaction has created a vacuum that the DA has been quick to exploit.

The Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO), under the leadership of Minister Ronald Lamola, has also come under scrutiny for its handling of the crisis. Lamola, a relatively inexperienced figure in the realm of diplomacy, appears to be out of his depth in navigating the complexities of this high-stakes situation. His lack of a robust, proactive response has further emboldened the DA to step into the fray. The DA’s delegation to the US, while controversial, has been framed as a necessary intervention to address what the party describes as the ANC’s failure to protect South Africa’s international reputation and interests. By positioning itself as the party willing to take action where the ANC has faltered, the DA has sought to reinforce its image as a competent and proactive alternative.

This strategic manoeuvring by the DA highlights a broader trend within the GNU: the ANC’s inability to act decisively and consistently has created opportunities for its coalition partner to undermine its authority and assert its own relevance. While the DA’s actions may be seen as overreach by some, they are going to resonate with segments of the electorate who are frustrated with the ANC’s perceived ineptitude. The ANC’s failure to translate Ramaphosa’s strong rhetoric into tangible outcomes has not only weakened its position within the GNU but has also handed the DA a powerful narrative to wield in its quest for greater influence.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balancing Act in a Shifting Political Landscape

The GNU has ushered in a new era of South African politics, one defined by coalition governance, heightened political competition, and the ANC’s struggle to adapt to its diminished dominance. While the DA has emerged as a key player in the post-2024 political landscape, its influence is far from assured. The party’s recent foray into foreign affairs, particularly its engagement with the Trump administration, has exposed the limits of its influence and raised questions about whether it has overplayed its hand. 

However, the DA’s ability to capitalise on the ANC’s apparent lethargy and lack of decisive action especially in responding to international crises, has allowed it to position itself as a proactive and competent alternative. This has further complicated the dynamics of the GNU, as the DA continues to exploit the ANC’s weaknesses to bolster its own standing.

The ANC, for its part, remains a formidable force, despite its internal divisions and reduced electoral mandate. However, its inability to translate President Ramaphosa’s strong rhetoric into tangible outcomes, coupled with DIRCO’s lacklustre response under Minister Ronald Lamola, has weakened its position both domestically and internationally. The ANC’s failure to act decisively in the face of external challenges has not only handed the DA a powerful narrative but has also deepened the fissures within its own ranks. The pro-GNU and anti-GNU factions within the ANC continue to clash, further hampering the party’s ability to present a united front and govern effectively.

Ultimately, the success of the GNU will depend on the ability of both the ANC and DA to put aside their differences and work together in the national interest. This will require a delicate balancing act, as both parties seek to assert their influence while avoiding the pitfalls of political overreach. For the ANC, this means addressing its internal divisions, delivering on its promises, and reclaiming its role as a decisive leader in both domestic and foreign policy. For the DA, it means exercising restraint and ensuring that its actions align with the broader interests of South Africa, rather than being perceived as self-serving or overly aligned with Western powers.

The coming months will be a critical test of their ability to rise to this challenge. If the ANC can stabilise itself and reassert its authority, it may yet marginalise the DA within the GNU. Conversely, if the DA continues to capitalise on the ANC’s missteps and overreach in its quest for dominance, it risks alienating its support base and undermining the gains it has made. In this high-stakes political environment, the future of South Africa’s coalition government hangs in the balance, with both parties facing immense pressure to navigate the complexities of power-sharing while addressing the urgent needs of the nation.

(Dube is a Political Economist, Businessman, and Social Commentator on UkhoziFM and various newspapers. Read more of his articles here: www. ncodube.blog)