By Nco Dube | 04 February 2025

In the annals of modern political history, few figures have disrupted the delicate fabric of international diplomacy as profoundly as Donald Trump. His presidency, marked by a brash, transactional approach to foreign policy, is leaving a trail of fractured alliances, eroded trust, and a recalibration of global power dynamics. Trump’s strongman tactics ranging from outrageous statements and unilateral sanctions to outright threats, have not only upended centuries-old diplomatic traditions but have also set a dangerous precedent for how nations interact in an increasingly polarised world. Nowhere is this more evident than in his recent threats against South Africa, a country that has dared to chart an independent foreign policy path, much to the chagrin of Western powers and their allies.

The Trump Doctrine: A Strongman’s Playbook

Donald Trump’s approach to diplomacy can be best described as a wrecking ball, smashing through established norms and institutions with little regard for the consequences. His modus operandi is rooted in the politics of intimidation, leveraging economic power, military might, and inflammatory rhetoric to force other nations into submission. This strongman approach is a stark departure from the multilateralism that has defined international relations since the end of World War II.

Trump’s use of tariffs and sanctions as weapons of economic coercion has been particularly disruptive. By unilaterally imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, he has undermined the rules-based trading system overseen by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). His sanctions regime, often enacted without consultation or regard for international law, has crippled economies and exacerbated humanitarian crises in countries like Iran and Venezuela. These actions have not only strained relationships with traditional allies but have also emboldened authoritarian regimes to adopt similar tactics, further eroding the global order.

Equally concerning is Trump’s penchant for outrageous statements and threats, which he uses to dominate headlines and pressure opponents. Whether it’s threatening to “totally destroy” North Korea or referring to African nations as “shithole countries,” his rhetoric has consistently undermined diplomatic efforts and inflamed tensions. This approach, while effective in rallying his domestic base, has left a lasting stain on America’s global reputation and weakened its moral authority.

South Africa in the Crosshairs

Trump’s strongman tactics have not spared South Africa, a country that has increasingly found itself at odds with Western powers over its foreign policy decisions. His recent threats against South Africa, ostensibly in response to the country’s Expropriation Bill and the false narrative of a “white genocide,” are emblematic of his transactional and often vindictive approach to international relations.

The recently passed Expropriation Act, which seeks to address historical land injustices by allowing the government to expropriate land without compensation, has been a contentious issue both domestically and internationally. While the bill is aimed at redressing the legacy of apartheid, it has been mischaracterised by right-wing groups and certain Western media outlets as an attack on white South Africans. Trump, with the help of buddy and South African-born billionaire Elon Musk, ever the opportunist, has seized on this narrative to further his own agenda, threatening punitive measures against South Africa.

This narrative of a “white genocide” is not only false but also deeply harmful. It distracts from the real issues facing South Africa, such as inequality, unemployment, and corruption, while stoking racial tensions and undermining efforts at reconciliation. Moreover, it plays into the hands of those who seek to discredit South Africa’s foreign policy decisions, particularly its support for Palestine and its decision to take Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on charges of genocide.

South Africa’s Independent Foreign Policy

South Africa’s foreign policy has long been guided by principles of human rights, justice, and non-alignment. This has sometimes put it at odds with Western powers, particularly on issues such as Palestine, where South Africa has been a vocal critic of Israeli policies. Its decision to take Israel to the ICJ, while controversial, is consistent with its commitment to international law and justice.

Similarly, South Africa’s neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) conflict, where it has taken on Rwanda, a darling of the West, reflect its commitment to an independent and mostly principled foreign policy. These decisions, while unpopular in some quarters, are a testament to South Africa’s refusal to be bullied into aligning with Western interests.

Trump’s threats against South Africa must be seen in this context. They are not just about the Expropriation Bill or the false narrative of a “white genocide.” They are about punishing South Africa for daring to defy Western hegemony and chart its own course on the global stage. This is the essence of Trump’s strongman politics: the use of coercion and intimidation to maintain dominance and suppress dissent.

The Erosion of Diplomatic Traditions

Trump’s approach to diplomacy represents a radical departure from the norms and traditions that have governed international relations for centuries. Diplomacy, at its core, is about dialogue, negotiation, and compromise. It is about finding common ground and building relationships based on mutual respect and understanding.

Trump’s strongman tactics, by contrast, are rooted in confrontation and coercion. They prioritise short-term gains over long-term stability and undermine the trust and goodwill that are essential for effective diplomacy. This approach has not only damaged America’s relationships with its allies but has also created a vacuum that other powers, such as China and Russia, have been quick to exploit.

The impact of this erosion of diplomatic traditions will be felt for decades to come. It has emboldened authoritarian leaders to adopt similar tactics, leading to a rise in unilateralism and a decline in multilateral cooperation. It has also weakened international institutions, such as the United Nations and the WTO, which rely on consensus and cooperation to function effectively.

The Future of Inter-Country Relationships

The long-term consequences of Trump’s strongman politics are difficult to predict, but one thing is clear: the world is becoming increasingly fragmented and polarised. The erosion of trust and the rise of unilateralism have made it more difficult for countries to work together on pressing global issues, such as climate change, pandemics, and nuclear proliferation.

In this new world order, smaller nations like South Africa will face increasing pressure to align with the interests of more powerful countries. Those that refuse to do so, like South Africa, will be subjected to coercion and intimidation. This is a dangerous trend that threatens to undermine the sovereignty and independence of nations, particularly in the Global South.

Riding Out the Storm: South Africa’s Playbook in a Second Trump Era

For South Africa, a nation that values multilateralism, equality, and an independent foreign policy, this development presents immediate and pressing challenges. The need to insulate itself from the potential fallout of a second Trump administration is not a matter of conjecture but a matter of urgent strategic necessity.

The initial shockwaves of Trump’s return have already been felt. Trade agreements are under review, climate commitments are being questioned, and there is a palpable chilling effect on international cooperation. Given this reality, South Africa cannot afford to wait and see. A proactive, multi-pronged approach is essential for mitigating the negative impacts and safeguarding national interests.

Immediate Priorities: Stabilising Regional Alliances: The first and most crucial step is to solidify and strengthen regional alliances within Africa. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) must be accelerated and deepened, becoming a tangible reality that fosters intra-African trade and investment. This reduces dependence on volatile external markets and creates a more resilient regional economy capable of weathering external shocks. South Africa needs to actively champion and invest in the AfCFTA, pushing for the removal of trade barriers and the harmonisation of regulations. Diplomatic coordination with African partners must be intensified, presenting a unified front on key issues and providing mutual support in international forums. Addressing regional security challenges collaboratively also becomes more critical, lessening reliance on external actors who may have shifting priorities.

Diversification: Reliance on traditional Western partners is no longer a sustainable strategy. South Africa must now, more aggressively than ever, pursue diversified relationships with emerging powers such as China, India, and Brazil. These nations offer alternative sources of investment, technology, and diplomatic support, lessening dependence on a potentially unreliable United States. Strategic alliances with middle powers that share similar values, such as the Nordic countries, Canada, or even Australia, can create a broader coalition to promote multilateralism and a rules-based international order. Active engagement within multilateral institutions like the UN, the African Union, and the Non-Aligned Movement is crucial for maintaining a voice on the global stage and working collectively to address shared challenges.

Fortifying the Home Front: A strong, diversified economy is the best defence against external pressures. South Africa must accelerate efforts to diversify its economy, reducing dependence on specific export markets and investing in new industries, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, technology, and value-added manufacturing. Structural reforms aimed at improving the business environment, attracting investment, and promoting job creation are essential. Good governance, transparency, and the rule of law are paramount, not only for attracting foreign investment but also for building a resilient and inclusive society capable of withstanding external pressures.

Strategic Communication: The information war is already underway. South Africa must proactively combat disinformation and shape a positive narrative about its values, its achievements, and its role in the world. This requires engaging with international media, supporting independent journalism, and utilising digital platforms to communicate directly with global audiences. Public diplomacy efforts should focus on building relationships with civil society organizations, academics, and cultural institutions in other countries, fostering understanding and support for South Africa’s policies.

Legal and Normative Defences: International law and norms must be actively defended. South Africa should be prepared to utilise international legal mechanisms, such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), to challenge actions that violate international law or unfairly disadvantage the country. Working with like-minded nations to uphold the principles of multilateralism and the rule of law is essential. South Africa should champion reforms to international institutions to make them more representative and responsive to the needs of developing countries.

A Moment of Truth: The return of Trump presents South Africa with a defining moment. The path forward requires bold leadership, strategic vision, and a willingness to embrace new partnerships and strategies. By prioritising regional integration, diversifying its global relationships, strengthening its domestic economy, and actively shaping the narrative, South Africa can not only weather the storm but also emerge stronger and more resilient. The time for complacency is over; the time for action is now. The nation must ride out the storm.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s strongman approach to politics has been a wrecking ball for international diplomacy, smashing through established norms and institutions with little regard for the consequences. His use of threats, outrageous statements, and unilateral sanctions has not only damaged America’s global reputation but has also set a dangerous precedent for how nations interact in an increasingly polarised world.

South Africa, with its commitment to an independent and principled foreign policy, has found itself in the crosshairs of Trump’s coercive tactics. His threats against the country, rooted in false narratives and vindictive politics, are a stark reminder of the challenges facing nations that dare to defy Western hegemony. As the world grapples with the fallout of Trump’s presidency, it is imperative that we reaffirm the principles of dialogue, negotiation, and mutual respect that underpin effective diplomacy. The alternative, a world dominated by coercion and intimidation, is one that we can ill afford.

In the words of Nelson Mandela, “It is in your hands to create a better world for all who live in it.” Let us hope that the world chooses the path of cooperation and understanding, rather than the wrecking ball of strongman politics.

(Dube is a Political Economist, Businessman, and Social Commentator on UkhoziFM and various newspapers. Read more of his articles here: www. ncodube.blog)