By Nco Dube

16 August 2024

Floyd Shivambu’s recent resignation from the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) to join Jacob Zuma’s Umkhonto we Sizwe Party (MKP) has sent shockwaves through South Africa’s political landscape. As a prominent figure in the EFF, Shivambu’s departure raises questions about the motivations behind his move and its potential implications for both the EFF and the broader political environment in South Africa. Two prevailing theories have emerged about this significant shift. One suggests a strategic alliance aimed at strengthening the MKP for a future amalgamation with the EFF. The other posits personal ambition as the driving force behind Shivambu’s decision. This piece will attempt to evaluate these theories. It will also explore the potential impact of Shivambu’s move on the EFF, the MKP, the African National Congress (ANC) and its GNU. Additionally, it will look at the wider political sphere.

Theory One: Strategic Strengthening of the MKP

The first theory posits that Shivambu’s resignation is a calculated move designed to bolster the MKP, which has faced challenges related to organisational capacity and ideological clarity. Since its formation and unprecedented excellent run at the elections, the MKP has struggled to establish itself as a credible political force, particularly following its recent electoral performance, which, while notable, revealed significant gaps in its structure and direction. 

Organizational Capacity and Ideological Direction

Shivambu’s experience as a co-founder and key leader within the EFF positions him uniquely to address these deficiencies. The EFF has built a reputation for its strong organisational framework and clear ideological stance, advocating for radical economic transformation and land expropriation without compensation. By joining the MKP, Shivambu could leverage his expertise to help the party develop a coherent organisational strategy and a more defined ideological platform.

The potential merger between the EFF and MKP, as suggested by this theory, could create a formidable leftist coalition in South African politics. Such a consolidation could unify disenchanted voters who seek alternatives to the ANC, particularly in the wake of ongoing dissatisfaction with the ruling party’s governance. If Shivambu is indeed being “deployed” to strengthen the MKP, it may signal a strategic alignment of leftist forces aimed at challenging the ANC’s dominance.

Implications for the Political Landscape

The implications of this potential merger would be significant. A united leftist front could attract a broader support base, particularly among young voters and those disillusioned with the ANC’s failure to deliver on promises of economic freedom and social justice. This could lead to a realignment of political power in South Africa, as the EFF and MKP together could present a more compelling alternative to the ANC, potentially drawing away votes from the ruling party in future elections.

However, the success of such a merger would depend on the ability of both parties to reconcile their differences and establish a shared vision. The EFF has cultivated a distinct identity, and any attempt to merge with the MKP would require careful negotiation to ensure that the core values and policies of both parties are preserved.

Theory Two: Personal Ambition and Leadership Aspirations

The second theory suggests that Shivambu’s departure is driven by personal ambition rather than strategic alignment. As a prominent figure within the EFF, Shivambu has played a crucial role in shaping the party’s narrative and direction. However, his position as deputy president under Julius Malema may have left him feeling constrained and eager for greater autonomy.

Frustration with Leadership Dynamics

This theory posits that Shivambu’s resignation reflects a desire to escape the shadow of Malema and carve out his own political identity. The dynamics within the EFF have often been characterised by a strong leader-follower relationship, with Malema’s charismatic leadership overshadowing the contributions of other party leaders. Shivambu may have grown frustrated with playing a secondary role and sought an opportunity to lead and influence a party from the ground up.

By joining the MKP, Shivambu could seize the chance to build a political platform that aligns more closely with his vision. This move would allow him to shape the party’s direction and policies without the constraints imposed by the EFF’s leadership structure. 

Implications for the EFF and Internal Dynamics

If this theory holds, Shivambu’s departure could have significant implications for the EFF. His exit may not only weaken the party’s leadership but also lead to internal strife as factions vie for power and influence. The EFF is already facing challenges related to internal cohesion, and Shivambu’s departure could exacerbate these issues, particularly if other leaders or supporters follow suit.

Furthermore, the loss of a prominent figure like Shivambu could impact the EFF’s electoral prospects already hampered by the sudden emergence on the Left political landscape, of the MKP. His policy czar skills have played a crucial role in rallying support for the party, and his absence may leave a void that is difficult to fill. This could lead to a further decline in voter confidence and support, particularly among those who view Shivambu as a key advocate for the party’s radical economic agenda.

Wider Political Implications

Shivambu’s resignation and subsequent move to the MKP have broader implications for the South African political landscape, particularly concerning the ANC and its position as the ruling party.

Impact on the ANC

The ANC has long been the dominant force in South African politics, but its grip on power has been increasingly challenged in recent years. The rise of the EFF and other opposition parties has exposed cracks in the ANC’s support base, particularly among younger voters who are disillusioned with the party’s failure to address pressing socio-economic issues.

Shivambu’s move to the MKP could exacerbate these challenges for the ANC. A strengthened MKP, potentially bolstered by Shivambu’s leadership, could further siphon off votes from the ANC, particularly in regions where the ANC has historically enjoyed strong support and where the MKP failed to make an impact in the last elections. This could further weaken the ANC’s position and lead to a more fragmented political landscape.

Implications for the GNU

Shivambu’s move to the MKP could have several implications for the GNU. Firstly, it may embolden the MKP, which has already shown surprising electoral strength by capturing 14.58% of the national vote. With Shivambu’s leadership experience and political acumen, the MKP could become a more formidable player within the opposition, potentially challenging the ANC’s authority and influence in Parliament.

Moreover, Shivambu’s departure may signal a shift in loyalty among EFF members, with other loyalists likely to follow him to the MKP. This exodus could weaken the EFF’s position in any potential future participation and influence in the GNU, diminishing its ability to exert pressure on the coalition government. As the EFF grapples with internal turmoil and leadership challenges, the MKP could emerge as a more cohesive and organised opposition force, potentially drawing support from disillusioned EFF constituents.

The EFF’s Response

The EFF’s leadership, particularly Julius Malema, has acknowledged the potential fallout from Shivambu’s resignation. Malema’s statement that “there will be many others who are going to leave the EFF” underscores the party’s precarious position as it heads into its upcoming elective conference. The EFF must now navigate the challenges posed by Shivambu’s departure while also addressing its internal divisions and maintaining its ideological coherence.

The loss of a prominent figure like Shivambu could impact the EFF’s electoral prospects. The EFF’s ability to present a united front and articulate a compelling vision for South Africa will be critical in the wake of this leadership shakeup.

Impact on Opposition Politics in Parliament

Shivambu’s resignation and the subsequent rise of the MKP could significantly alter the dynamics of opposition politics in Parliament. The formation of the GNU has already created a more complex political landscape, with multiple parties vying for influence and representation.

Fragmentation of the Opposition

The fragmentation of the opposition, particularly with the emergence of the MKP, could lead to a more competitive environment in Parliament. As the MKP gains traction, it may attract voters who are disillusioned with the EFF or the ANC, thereby reshaping the balance of power among opposition parties. This shift could force the EFF and other opposition parties to reevaluate their strategies and messaging to remain relevant in a rapidly changing political landscape.

Furthermore, the potential internal instability within the EFF, exacerbated by Shivambu’s departure, may hinder the party’s ability to effectively challenge the governing coalition. As noted in recent analyses, the opposition has struggled to capitalise on the vulnerabilities of the GNU, allowing the coalition to operate with relative impunity. The lack of a cohesive and organised opposition could diminish the effectiveness of parliamentary oversight and accountability, ultimately impacting governance and policymaking.

The EFF’s Future

The EFF, on the other hand, faces a critical juncture in the wake of Shivambu’s resignation. The party must navigate the challenges posed by his departure while also addressing internal divisions and maintaining its ideological coherence. The upcoming elective conference in December 2024 will be a crucial moment for the EFF, as it seeks to reaffirm its identity and chart a path forward in a rapidly changing political environment.

The party’s ability to adapt to this new reality will determine its future viability as a political force. If the EFF can rally its supporters and present a united front, it may still hold significant sway in South African politics. However, if internal divisions deepen and voter confidence wanes, the party could find itself in a precarious position.

Potential for New Alliances

Shivambu’s move to the MKP may also pave the way for new political alliances and realignments within the opposition. As parties seek to consolidate their support and present a united front against the ANC-led coalition, there may be opportunities for collaboration among opposition factions, especially the MKP and the EFF itself. The MKP, with its populist appeal and growing support base, could become a key player in forging these alliances.

The potential for collaboration among opposition parties could enhance their collective bargaining power in Parliament, enabling them to more effectively challenge the policies and decisions of the GNU. However, achieving this unity will require overcoming ideological differences and establishing a shared vision for the future of South Africa.

Conclusion

Floyd Shivambu’s resignation from the EFF to join the MKP marks a pivotal moment in South African politics. The two theories surrounding his motivations—strategic strengthening of the MKP versus personal ambition—offer valuable insights into the complexities of political dynamics in the country. 

This significant turning point has far-reaching implications for the GNU and opposition dynamics in Parliament. As the MKP seeks to capitalise on its newfound strength, the EFF faces internal challenges that could undermine its position as a leading opposition party.

The evolving political landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for the opposition. While fragmentation may weaken their collective influence, the potential for new alliances could enhance their ability to hold the governing coalition accountable. 

Ultimately, the future of South Africa’s political landscape will depend on how these parties navigate their evolving roles, unite their bases, and respond to the aspirations of a changing electorate. The emergence of new political alliances and realignments may shape the course of South Africa’s democracy in the years to come, as the opposition seeks to reclaim its voice and influence in the face of a complex and dynamic political environment.

(Dube is a Political Economist, Businessman, and Social Commentator on Radio and various newspapers. Read more of his articles here: ncodube.blog)