South Africa’s 2024 General Elections: Coalition of the Left and Its Implications

By Nco Dube

The 2024 general elections in South Africa have set the country on a new and untested trajectory of coalition politics, with the African National Congress (ANC) facing calls to form a coalition government with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the newly formed Umkhonto Wesizwe (MK) Party led by former President Jacob Zuma. 

South African voters for the first time did not give an absolute mandate to the ANC. Still, they did overwhelmingly vote for parties they perceived as leaning or located to the left of the political and economic spectrum with 64% of the vote going to the ANC, EFF, and the new MK Party.

This “coalition of the left” would represent a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, with profound implications for the future of South Africa. 

The potential coalition between the ANC, EFF, and MK Party is rooted in their shared history and significant ideological similarities. Both the EFF and the MK Party appear to be radicalised leftist versions of the ANC to varying degrees. Both having broken away from the ANC on grounds of personality clashes rather than ideological ones.

One of the primary advantages of this coalition is that it would allow the ANC to maintain its influence and power while also addressing some of the criticisms levelled against it. The EFF and the MK Party have been vocal critics of the ANC’s failures, and their inclusion in a coalition government could provide a platform for addressing issues of economic inequality, land reform, and transformation.

Furthermore, the coalition could potentially lead to a more stable and representative government considering almost two-thirds of the number of seats it would hold in parliament. The ANC has historically been the dominant party in South African politics, and its partnership with the EFF and MK Party could ensure that the government remains focused on its key priorities. This stability would be particularly important in the current economic climate, where South Africa faces significant challenges and uncertainty.

However, there are also several potential drawbacks to this coalition. One of the primary concerns is that it could lead to a loss of accountability and transparency. The ANC has historically been criticised for its lack of transparency and accountability, and partnering with the EFF and MK Party who may still possess the same culture could potentially exacerbate these issues. 

Additionally, the coalition could lack clear direction and policy coherence, as the three parties have different ideological perspectives (as opposed to differing ideologies) and priorities. Also, while the ANC and the EFF have well-developed policy positions, the MK remains an enigma with only their radical, extremely populist, and largely impractical election manifesto to go by.

Another potential drawback is that the coalition could lead to a loss of support from middle-class voters. The ANC has historically been the dominant party in South African politics, and some voters may be hesitant to support a coalition government that includes the EFF and the MK Party. Both parties have been criticised for their radical policies and populist rhetoric, which could potentially alienate some voters.

The relationship between Jacob Zuma and the ANC is also a significant factor in this equation. Zuma’s departure (although he still insists, he remains a member)  from the ANC and the formation of the MK Party have created a rift within the party, and the MK Party’s demand that Zuma’s successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, be removed as ANC leader and president could further complicate the coalition negotiations. 

The EFF, on the other hand, finds itself in a vulnerable position with the emergence of the MK Party. The EFF has been the primary left-wing opposition to the ANC, and the MK Party’s entry into the political landscape has eroded its support base. With that, a significant leverage in any coalition negotiations.

In terms of the prospects for stability, social justice, redress, and transformation, the coalition of the left could potentially deliver significant progress. The ANC, EFF, and MK Party all seemingly share a commitment to addressing the country’s deep-seated inequalities and transforming the economic and social landscape. 

However, the coalition’s ability to achieve these goals would depend on its ability to overcome the challenges posed by a lack of accountability, transparency, and policy coherence.

While there aren’t any significant ideological differences, at least on paper, between the ANC, EFF, and MK the varying focus and priorities would significantly impact policy decisions in a potential coalition government making it challenging to achieve consensus on key issues. 

The ANC, as the ruling party, has historically been committed to a mixed-market and redistributive agenda, while the EFF is known for its radical economic policies and anti-capitalist stance. The MK Party, on the other hand, is proposing unconventional and radical constitutional interventions.

In a coalition government, these differences would likely lead to significant tensions and conflict. The ANC would likely try to remain on course with its centrist, slightly neo-liberal approach while the EFF and the MK Party would likely push for more radical economic policies, such as the nationalisation of key sectors and increased state intervention in the economy. 

The markets, on the other hand, are likely to view the coalition of the left with more than just significant scepticism. The ANC’s partnership with the EFF and the MK Party could be seen as a move towards a more radical economic agenda, which could potentially deter foreign investment and undermine the country’s economic stability.

Capital, represented by big business and the markets, believes that a centre-left coalition consisting of the ANC, EFF, and MK Party would be detrimental to South Africa’s economic interests. 

The primary reasons cited are:

1. Policy uncertainty
2. Loss of investor confidence
3. Increased social spending
4. EFF, MK unpredictability
5. Lack of trust amongst the coalition partners
6. Increased labour union influence
7. Unsustainable transformation agenda on land reform, nationalisation, etc.
8. Increased government interference in the markets

However, these concerns should be evaluated against the self-interest of capital. While a centre-left coalition may introduce some policy uncertainty in the short term, it could also lead to greater economic equality, social justice, and political stability in the long run. Increased state intervention in the economy could benefit certain sectors and reduce inequality, which could ultimately lead to a more stable and prosperous society.

Moreover, Capital’s preference for a centre-right coalition between the ANC and DA may not necessarily align with the interests of the majority of South Africans, who have historically been marginalised and disadvantaged by the country’s economic system. 

A centre-left coalition, despite its potential challenges, could be seen as a means of addressing these long-standing inequalities and promoting a more inclusive and equitable society.

The actual outlook of a coalition between the ANC, EFF, and MK Party is uncertain and fraught with challenges. The ANC and EFF have historically been at odds over issues such as the nationalisation of key sectors and increased state intervention in the economy, while the MK Party is a new radical, unpredictable, and unknown entity dominated by the cult of personality around its leader. Additionally, both the MK Party’s and EFF’s populist campaigns have raised concerns about the party’s ability to deliver on their election promises.

The coalition would also face significant challenges in terms of governance and policy implementation. The ANC and EFF have different visions for the country’s economic and social development, which would likely lead to conflicts over key policy issues. Additionally, the coalition would need to navigate the complex web of personality clashes, party politics, and interests, which would likely lead to significant challenges in terms of decision-making and policy implementation.

In conclusion, the coalition of the left consisting of the ANC, EFF, and MK Party would represent a significant shift in South African politics. While there are potential advantages to this coalition, including the possibility of greater stability and a renewed focus on social justice and transformation, there are also significant challenges that would need to be overcome. 

The relationship between the ANC and Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, as well as the EFF’s vulnerable position, would be critical factors in determining the success or failure of this potential coalition. 

Ultimately, the future of South Africa’s political landscape will depend on the ability of these parties to work together effectively and to address the concerns and aspirations of the country’s diverse population.

Overall, an ANC, EFF, and MK coalition would likely have both benefits and challenges, and it is essential to carefully consider these factors when evaluating the potential outcomes of such a coalition.

(Dube is a Political Economist, Businessman, and Social Commentator on Radio and various newspapers. Read more of his articles here: ncodube.blog)