By Nco Dube

The 2024 South African general election marked a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, as the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party lost its long-held majority, garnering only 40% of the vote. This outcome has set the stage for a new era of coalition politics in South Africa, with the ANC now needing to form alliances to govern effectively.

In the aftermath of the election, the ANC faces immense pressure not to form what has been dramatically termed a “Doomsday Coalition” with the left-leaning Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the newly formed Umkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) led by former President Jacob Zuma. Instead, Capital (big business and market speculators) are agitating for a centre-right coalition between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA), the official opposition party that received just over 21% of the vote. Failing that, a government of national unity has been proposed as an alternative.

Capital believes an ANC-DA coalition is the best outcome for South Africa because it would maintain the country’s economic policies and slightly improve its fiscal and growth outlook. The DA is seen as a pro-business party that would ensure economic liberalization and prudent public spending. 

The coalition would also allow the government to keep its key policy framework intact, which would be welcomed by markets and marginally improve South Africa’s economic outlook. This perspective is driven by the self-interest of big business and the markets, which would benefit from a stable and predictable economic environment.

However, this perspective is problematic because it prioritises the interests of big business and the markets over those of the broader population. The coalition would likely lead to further economic inequality and social injustice, as the DA’s policies would likely benefit the wealthy and powerful at the expense of the poor and marginalised. 

Additionally, the coalition would likely lead to a lack of accountability and transparency, as the DA has a history of opposing measures to increase transparency and accountability in government as seen in the Western Cape where they govern. 

Overall, the perspective of Capital is driven by a narrow and self-serving view of what is best for South Africa, rather than a genuine concern for the well-being of the country and its people.

The influence of big business in South Africa’s political landscape is deeply rooted in the country’s colonial and apartheid history. The mineral resource-based industrial complex and the Afrikaner industrialisation programmes during the apartheid era have long shaped the economic and political power structures in the country. 

Geneva-based Economist and Commentator, Siyabonga Hadebe has consistently argued that these predominantly white-owned businesses have historically played a significant role in stage-managing the government and controlling access to state power since the formation of the Union of South Africa in 1910.

One of the key mechanisms used by Capital to maintain its influence has been the implementation of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE). These deals have involved the distribution of shares in major companies to ANC leaders or those closely linked to them, effectively “buying” their influence and loyalty. As the ANC scrambles to form a coalition government, the impact of these BEE deals and the influence of their beneficiaries on the mooted coalition negotiations cannot be overlooked.

The mainstream media in South Africa has also played a significant role in shaping public opinion and influencing the political landscape during the 2024 general elections and the subsequent coalition discourse. 

A large part of the media has been used as a mouthpiece for the agitators of the centre-right coalition, amplifying their voices and promoting their agenda. This is evident in the way certain media outlets have been consistently critical of the ANC and its allies while giving a platform to the DA and its supporters to push their narrative.

The media’s role in shaping public opinion has been particularly evident in the recent election cycle. Many media outlets have been quick to label the ANC as a “failed” party while portraying the DA as a viable alternative. Thus, positioning the DA as the only saviour that can reverse ANC failures in government.

This narrative has been perpetuated through biased reporting, with many outlets giving more airtime to DA leaders and the supporters of this promoted centre-right coalition. The media’s influence has been further amplified by social media, where pro-DA and anti-MK/EFF sentiments have been spread widely. 

As a result, the public has been presented with a skewed view of the political landscape, with the centre-right coalition being portrayed as the only viable option for change. This has had a significant impact on public opinion, with some voters being swayed by the media’s narrative and opting for the DA as a result.

Now, while the ANC and the DA appear to be diametrically opposed on paper, with the ANC championing left-progressive policies and the DA advocating for right, market-oriented policies. However, in practice, they are much closer to each other than they are to the left-leaning parties like the EFF and the MK party for the ANC, and the right-leaning parties like the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) and Gayton Mckenzie’s Patriotic Alliance(PA) for the DA.

For instance, both the ANC and the DA have implemented policies that benefit big business and the wealthy. The ANC’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policy, which was meant to redress the economic inequalities of apartheid, has often been criticised for benefiting only a select few and perpetuating corruption. 

Similarly, the DA’s free market policies have led to the privatisation of public services and the erosion of social welfare programmes, benefiting large corporations and the wealthy at the expense of the poor and working class. 

These policy overlaps demonstrate that, despite their ideological differences, both parties are more concerned with maintaining the status quo and protecting the interests of the powerful than with truly addressing the needs of the marginalised.

In practice, the ANC and the DA have also collaborated on various issues, such as the implementation of austerity measures and the suppression of labour rights. For example, the ANC has implemented austerity measures that have led to job losses and reduced social services, while the DA has supported these measures, claiming they are necessary for economic growth. 

Similarly, both parties have been critical of labour unions and have worked to limit their power and influence. Even as the ANC keeps its waning alliance with the largest trade union federation in the country, COSATU. 

These examples illustrate that, despite their supposed ideological differences, the ANC and the DA are more similar than they are to the left-leaning parties like the EFF and MK, and to the right-leaning parties like the FF+ and the PA.

The supporters of the ANC and the DA have vastly different expectations and priorities when it comes to the potential coalition. The ANC’s base, which includes a significant portion of the country’s poor and working-class population, is likely to view a centre-right coalition with the DA as a betrayal of the party’s historical commitment to economic transformation and social justice. They may perceive such a coalition as a capitulation to the interests of big business and a continuation of the status quo.

On the other hand, the DA’s supporters, who are predominantly middle-class and affluent, are likely to welcome a coalition with the ANC as a means of ensuring economic stability and policy continuity. They may see it as a way to temper the more radical economic policies proposed by the left-leaning parties and maintain a business-friendly environment.

The leaders of the ANC and the DA, however, may have different considerations in mind too. For the ANC, forming a coalition with the DA could be a pragmatic move to maintain power and access to state resources, even if it means compromising on some of the party’s supposed core principles. 

The potential coalition between the ANC and the DA  should be of significant concern for the ANC, as it could have a further negative impact for the party at the polls with the local government elections only two years away. 

The DA is seen as an anti-black party, and a coalition with them could be perceived as a betrayal of the ANC’s historical commitment to black empowerment and social justice. 

This could lead to a further significant loss of support among the ANC’s traditional base, particularly among black voters who have historically been loyal to the party.

A coalition with the DA could also be seen as a capitulation to the interests of big business and the wealthy, which could further erode the ANC’s support among the working class and the poor. The ANC’s alliance with the DA could also be perceived as a betrayal of the party’s socialist and anti-imperialist origins, which could lead to greater loss of support among the party’s left-wing supporters.

The DA, on the other hand, may view a coalition as an opportunity to gain a greater influence in the government and shape the policy agenda, potentially at the expense of its more conservative positions.

The potential for a government of national unity, as an alternative to a centre-right coalition, also raises its own set of challenges. While such an arrangement may promote political stability and unity, it could also lead to a dilution of the policy agenda and a lack of clear direction. Additionally, the diverse interests and ideologies represented in a government of national unity may make it difficult to reach a consensus on critical issues.

The actual outlook of a coalition between the ANC and the DA is uncertain and fraught with challenges. The two parties have fundamentally different policy positions, with the ANC advocating for a more socialist and redistributive approach (at least on paper), while the DA is committed to free market principles and limited government intervention. 

The DA’s opposition to key ANC policies such as the National Health Insurance Act and Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) would likely lead to significant tensions and conflicts within the coalition. 

Additionally, the DA’s history of anti-ANC rhetoric and its role in the 2024 election campaign, which included a controversial advert depicting the national flag being burned, would likely create significant mistrust and hostility within the ANC.

Furthermore, the DA’s leadership, particularly John Steenhuisen, has been critical of the ANC and its leaders, including President Cyril Ramaphosa, which would likely create significant challenges in building trust and cooperation within the coalition. 

The DA’s willingness to work with the ANC would also be seen as a betrayal by many within that party, particularly those who have historically been critical of the ANC. The coalition would also face significant opposition from within the ANC, particularly from those who are still entrenched in the party’s historical left and the African nationalists. 

Overall, the prospects of a successful coalition between the ANC and the DA are uncertain and would likely require significant concessions and compromises from both parties.

In the end, the formation of the next South African government will have significant implications for the country’s economic and social trajectory. The influence of big business and the competing interests of the political parties and their supporters will all play a crucial role in shaping the outcome.

As South Africa navigates this new era of coalition politics, it will be essential for the country’s leaders to prioritise the needs and aspirations of all its citizens, rather than succumbing to the narrow interests of big business and market speculators. The path forward may be complex, but it presents an opportunity to address the deep-seated inequalities and challenges plaguing the country for decades.

(Dube is a Political Economist, Businessman, and Social Commentator on Radio and various newspapers. Read more of his articles here: ncodube.blog)