By Nco Dube
So what happens after Mangaung? What happens to the main role players whose names are being bandied about in the media and their supporters? How will the results affect the contesting leaders, the ANC itself and most importantly how will it affect the broader South Africa?
There are only two results that can emerge out of Mangaung if the widely reported contest does indeed materialise. Kgalema Motlanthe can emerge the new ANC President or Jacob Zuma is retained as President. But for good measure let us also look at what happens if there is no contest as seen at the Cosatu congress now taking place in Johannesburg.
Let us say Motlanthe emerges victorious. My prediction is Zuma will retreat back to his Inkandla home to enjoy his retirement in comfort courtesy of the salary for life that former presidents enjoy. He will ingratiate himself into his community who will be grateful to him for the fast tracked development he brought them while he was President. I see him also getting involved with the Zulu Monarch and its affairs, attending traditional ceremonies, advising etc. All in all, a good retirement. I don’t see corruption charges being reinstated by a Motlanthe government.
It is something he would have done even if he retired at the end of a second term. People who stand to lose the most in a Motlanthe victory is not Zuma himself but those around him. Do you think Motlanthe supporters will allow him to retain Nathi Mthethwa, Blade Nzimande, Free State Premier Ace Magashule, Mpumalanga Premier Mabuza, Gauteng Premier Nonkonyane and many others. I think not, there will be a total purge of Zuma supporters in fear that they will destabilise the Motlanthe administration from the inside in the same way the Zuma administration is being destabilised from the inside.
If the Motlanthe camp carries the day at Mangaung there is a chance that Julius Malema can make a comeback to the ANC via a motion from the floor but I doubt it. Not all who want to see Zuma gone necessarily want Malema back. He is too much of a liability and is unpredictable.
The ANC itself will emerge in tatters. Divided by successive brutal leadership contestations from both Polokwane and Mangaung. The ANC has surprised us with its resilience though and Motlanthe will need to woo and charm (if he has any) all factions to unite and save the organisation. But for the ANC’s benefit we might see the return of some of the Mbeki-ites from self-exile and Cope. We might possibly see the likes of Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Penuell Maduna, Sydney Mufamadi, Moleketi and others make a political comeback.
No good news for the general public though. I don’t think much will change in vision, governance and accountability. Corruption will continue its rampant pace to devour our society. Fighting for positions and tenders within the ANC will continue under Motlanthe as it had when Zuma took over from Mbeki.
So what if the Zuma camp carries the day? I must say this is a tricky one since Zuma can be unpredictable at times. But in my view this will prematurely end political carriers of many promising leaders in the ANC.
The biggest casualty will be Motlanthe himself. If he contests and loses, his political career is finished. Totally. His only chance is to succeed Zuma from the deputy presidency whether it is at Mangaung or at the next conference but he can only catapult himself from that position.
Two factors unofficially dictate that. One, it has been a sort of a tradition now in the ANC that the Deputy President rises up to the throne. Mandela succeeded Tambo from the Deputy Presidency, Mbeki succeeded Mandela and Zuma succeeded Mbeki. Secondly, Motlanthe, though a bit younger, is regarded as coming from the same generation as Zuma and Mbeki. This means there is a growing list of younger leaders eager to move to the next level of leadership. The Mashatiles, the Zweli Mkhizes and many others.
Other casualties will include the very young and vibrant Mbalula, Mashatile, Limpopo Premier Mathale, North West Premier Modise and Malema’s fate will be finally sealed.
The ANC itself will emerge no better than it would have in a Motlanthe victory. Deeply divided and in tatters. And for the general public, things will continue as they are but at least without the leadership paralysis we are faced with now enroute to Mangaung.

Two curious survivors from either scenario will be Sexwale and Ramaphosa and we dont have to ask why, do we?
But what if there is a no contest? Well, both Zuma and Motlanthe will benefit immensely from a no contest. Zuma will get a chance to retire with some dignity at the end of the second term and Motlanthe will be assured (as far as those go in politics) of his ascendancy to the throne in 2017.
The ANC itself will benefit to a certain degree because it will be saved a brutal battle worse than Polokwane. But will there a benefit for broader South Africa? Surely there will be a much stronger and united ANC going to the 2014 elections. the question is, will that be good for South Africa?

I honestly don’t think Motlanthe will challenge Zuma unless he is absolutely sure of winning, he has far too much to lose were he to lose. He also doesn’t seem too comfortable to be elected on a perceived Malema/Youth League ticket. On the other hand Zuma also doesn’t have an appetite for a contest, it will be too embarrassing if he loses.